
Will a movie made with a budget under $1 million win the Academy Award for Best Picture before 2025?
7
Ṁ150Ṁ956Jan 2
2%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I always feel like my questions are fairly simple and straightforward. But manifold has proven me wrong, so ask if there needs to be clarification.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
If you’re curious what a $1M movie looks like, here’s a list. Note the dates, the most recent ones are nearly 15 years old. A $1M budget movie today is either a directorial debut on a shoestring budget, or an amateur film.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 2030?
5% chance
Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?
39% chance
Will a Bollywood or other Indian cinema movie win Best Picture at the Oscars / Academy Awards before the end of 2050?
51% chance
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
17% chance
By 2040, will a superhero movie win an academy award for best picture?
17% chance
Will a movie or short film that is primarily pixel art be nominated for an Oscar in any category before 2032?
19% chance
Will there be a film that costs over $1B to make by the end of 2035?
50% chance
Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?
37% chance
Will there be a film that costs over $1B to make by the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?
22% chance