Will a movie made with a budget under $1 million win the Academy Award for Best Picture before 2025?
Will a movie made with a budget under $1 million win the Academy Award for Best Picture before 2025?
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I always feel like my questions are fairly simple and straightforward. But manifold has proven me wrong, so ask if there needs to be clarification.
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If you’re curious what a $1M movie looks like, here’s a list. Note the dates, the most recent ones are nearly 15 years old. A $1M budget movie today is either a directorial debut on a shoestring budget, or an amateur film.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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