This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about RFK's bid to the strongest third party runs in recent previous elections.
Reports from the Federal Election Commission will be used to resolve this market.
Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Jo Jorgensen answer should not be taken as 1.18% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total she actually got according to the FEC (1,865,535/158,429,631=~1.1775164%) or Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate FEC reports.
Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.
EDIT: this was posted before I knew how few states he was actually withdrawing from.
Okay I did a quick scan of https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/07/19/if-a-presidential-nominee-drops-out-what-happens-to-states-ballots/ and it looks like 6-7 states will have locked their ballots by Friday, but most states don't print until various dates in September, even some in October (despite some 45-day rule for overseas voters)
@Tripping how does this resolve if he drops out? I guess you could still resolve it based on the amount of write-in votes he gets (if those numbers are released).
I've juiced up the polls on these 2 if any NO bettors want to bite in for maximum Chomp:
https://manifold.markets/OllieG/how-many-state-ballots-will-robert
https://manifold.markets/GavenWolfgang/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-achieve-ba
Keep in mind that estimating slightly lower turnout than 2020 (~150 million votes), he will need over 3 million votes to get to this.
People are just answering 'Yes' to the polls because he has the last name Kennedy, but I can't see an anti-vaxx and anti-climate policy platform turning out 3 million Americans when many of those people will also be QAnon types who go to Trump.
@ChadCotty ooh thanks - good context :)
(that was also a question/comment to accompany a repost to followers so more people hopefully see the market)