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Dec 31
30%
RFK doesn't win more than 5% in any state
15%
Colorado
9%
Texas
9%
Washington
9%
Wyoming
9%
Oklahoma
8%
Alaska
7%
Hawaii
7%
California
6%
Nebraska
6%
New Hampshire
6%
New Mexico
6%
New York
6%
Montana
6%
North Dakota
6%
Virginia
6%
Illinois
6%
Utah
5%
Rhode Island
5%
Arkansas

Every state in which Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins more than 5% of popular vote in the 2024 presidential election resolves YES.

Every other state resolves NO.

If he wins less than 5% in every state, only the "RFK doesn't win more than 5% in any state" option resolves YES.

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Will RFK do well?