How much of the popular vote will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
Basic
215
αΉ62k
2026
92%
More than 0.25% (what David Bergland won at the 1984 election)
90%
More than 0.38% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2004 election)
88%
More than 0.47% (what Ron Paul won at the 1988 election)
87%
More than 0.56% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2008 election)
82%
More than 0.99% (what Gary Johnson won at the 2012 election)
78%
More than 1.18% (what Jo Jorgensen won at the 2020 election)
77%
More than 1.42% (what John G. Schmitz won at the 1972 election)
69%
More than 2%
52%
More than 2.74% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2000 election)
48%
More than 3%
44%
More than 3.28% (what Gary Johnson won at the 2016 election)
33%
More than 4%
23%
More than 5%
15%
More than 6%
16%
More than 6.61% (what John B. Anderson won at the 1980 election)
14%
More than 7%
8%
More than 8%
9%
More than 8.4% (what Ross Perot won at the 1996 election)
8%
More than 9%
7%
More than 10%

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about RFK's bid to the strongest third party runs in recent previous elections.

Reports from the Federal Election Commission will be used to resolve this market.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Jo Jorgensen answer should not be taken as 1.18% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total she actually got according to the FEC (1,865,535/158,429,631=~1.1775164%) or Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate FEC reports.

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Cornel West version of the question!

@Tripping how does this resolve if he drops out? I guess you could still resolve it based on the amount of write-in votes he gets (if those numbers are released).

Using write-in votes seems like the right approach to me.

I'm just going to tally up the votes the FEC says he got, whether he drops out or not doesn't really matter to the question

Related Market:

bought αΉ50 More than 6% NO

polls tend to overrate third party candidates at this stage of the election

Why is the close date set 2 years later than expected? (2026)

More than 2%
bought αΉ10 More than 2% NO

Keep in mind that estimating slightly lower turnout than 2020 (~150 million votes), he will need over 3 million votes to get to this.

People are just answering 'Yes' to the polls because he has the last name Kennedy, but I can't see an anti-vaxx and anti-climate policy platform turning out 3 million Americans when many of those people will also be QAnon types who go to Trump.

If you have voter turnout opinions, this might be a good market for you

Arbitrage:

reposted

how popular is RFK Jr.?

@shankypanky Latest from RCP polling averages:

@ChadCotty ooh thanks - good context :)

(that was also a question/comment to accompany a repost to followers so more people hopefully see the market)

@ChadCotty FPTP polls suffer from vote-splitting and don't show actual popularity

bought αΉ10 More than 0.99% (wha... YES

yeah, RFK is a nutjob, but look at the competition

@AlQuinn Tragic.

bought αΉ10 More than 0.99% (wha... YES

actually this market is bid up higher wrt to the ~1% cutoff:

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-more-t?r=QWxRdWlubg

@AlQuinn he's not the coolest fuck you vote, he's kinda cRiNgE, but the field is very bad, it's a shame, Bernie as an independent would have him licked

@VAPOR Bernie?! I love how absurd it is that he's even older than the mainstream party idiots. RFK Jr is a just a young lad at 70, at least.

bought αΉ10 More than 0.56% (wha... YES

Great market, thanks.