How much of the popular vote will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
282
12kṀ320k
resolved Feb 11
Resolved
NO
More than 25%
Resolved
NO
More than 20%
Resolved
NO
More than 18.9% (what Ross Perot won at the 1992 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 15%
Resolved
NO
More than 13.5% (what George Wallace won at the 1968 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 10%
Resolved
NO
More than 9%
Resolved
NO
More than 8.4% (what Ross Perot won at the 1996 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 8%
Resolved
NO
More than 7%
Resolved
NO
More than 6.61% (what John B. Anderson won at the 1980 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 6%
Resolved
NO
More than 5%
Resolved
NO
More than 4%
Resolved
NO
More than 3.28% (what Gary Johnson won at the 2016 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 3%
Resolved
NO
More than 2.74% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2000 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 2%
Resolved
NO
More than 1.42% (what John G. Schmitz won at the 1972 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 1.18% (what Jo Jorgensen won at the 2020 election)

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about RFK's bid to the strongest third party runs in recent previous elections.

Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Jo Jorgensen answer should not be taken as 1.18% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total she actually got according to the FEC (1,865,535/158,429,631=~1.1775164%) or Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate FEC reports.

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.

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