Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030? | Manifold

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

68

1kṀ41k

2030

45%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to YES if any year before 2030 sees AT LEAST 50% (unrounded) market share by fully electrified vehicles according to Kelly Blue Book. Resolves NO if otherwise (no one year from now until 2030 sees at least 50% market share by fully electrified vehicles).

"Light vehicles" here means non-commercial light vehicles (e.g., sedans, light trucks, crossovers, etc.). HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are EXCLUDED from the EV market share counts; only fully electric vehicles are counted.

For some context, in Q2 of this year, fully electrified vehicles accounted for 5.6% of all vehicles purchased, compared to 2.7% in Q2 of 2021.

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