📖Will @ScottAlexander write another banger (over 500 likes) in 2023?
65
839
1.3K
resolved Sep 7
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if a post made on Astral Codex Ten between 2023-08-14 and 2023-12-31 (inclusive) receives more than 500 likes by the end of 2023. UTC times will be used. The post will need to have this many likes long enough for me to confirm. Only posts by Scott count. For example, the book review contest submissions do not count (unless one of them is later revealed to have been written by Scott).

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

Yay I knew he had it in him

bought Ṁ9,000 of YES
bought Ṁ50 of YES
bought Ṁ735 of YES

@Odoacre 331 likes, LFG!

predicted YES

@Odoacre I’m seeing different numbers of likes in my browser (468) and my app (484), suggesting that there’s some caching at play here. Does anyone see over 500? (I would still wait to resolve until I see over 500.)

predicted YES

@Tossup yes I had the same problem, even different brower tabs had different numbers sometimes.

predicted NO

296 likes now

👀

sold Ṁ26 of NO

@Tossup Thanks so much for commenting this

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Only four posts from the past year have received >400 likes in the 5+ months since they were published. A post would have to gain 500 likes within 4 months or less for this to resolve YES, performing far better than Scott’s work has thus far.