💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2025?
💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2025?
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150Ṁ1792026
80%
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Resolves based on the number of drugs that will be listed here, once the 2025 page is up and complete.
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I bet "No", because based on my analysis, the probability of approving 50 or more novel drugs in 2025 is 72.8%, which is higher than 50%.
The predicted approval numbers in FDA per year until 2025 are forecasted by using the approval new drug numbers in FDA from 2015 to 2022. As a result, 56.5 (95% CI 35.0 - 78.1, S.D 10.77) was shown as a predicted approval number in 2025. The probability of approving 50 or more novel drugs in 2025 will be 72.8% by calculating based on this data.
Therefore, I believe 50 or more new drugs will be approved in FDA in 2025.
Resource:
Retrieved by 10.25.2003, U.S. Food & Drug Administration, Novel Drug Approvals for 2022
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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