Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if Statistics Canada’s Table 17-10-0009-01 shows Canada’s population on January 1, 2026 is strictly lower than on January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO. Use the first official Q4 2025 release (expected March 2026); ignore later revisions unless StatsCan issues an explicit correction within 30 days. Baseline: 41,528,680 on Jan 1, 2025. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)

Background

• StatsCan’s quarterly population estimates are the standard reference and include non‑permanent residents (e.g., international students, temporary workers, asylum claimants). (www150.statcan.gc.ca)

• Q1 2025 estimate: 41,548,787 on April 1, 2025 (slightly above Jan 1, 2025). (www150.statcan.gc.ca)

• The federal government’s 2025–2027 immigration plan targets lower permanent admissions and a reduction in temporary residents; IRCC stated this plan is expected to produce a marginal population decline of ~0.2% in 2025 and 2026. Recent years saw record growth in 2023 driven largely by temporary migration. (canada.ca, reuters.com)

Considerations

• Because StatsCan counts non‑permanent residents in population, policy-driven outflows (permit expiries, fewer study/work permits) can quickly affect totals, independent of births/deaths. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)

• Resolution hinges on the Jan 1, 2026 estimate; intra‑year increases (e.g., Q1 2025 rise) don’t matter if year‑end falls below Jan 1, 2025. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)