In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
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See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction). Resolution criteria from the post:
"The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books. It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references. It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".
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