Will anyone earn Ṁ1,000,000 (1 million mana) profit by the end of May 20th?
17
234
310
resolved May 14
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve to YES if the top trader at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards All Time has 1,000,000 mana in profit before the end of May 20, 2023.

As of market creation, @Catnee is in the lead with Ṁ929,535 profit.

Clone with shorter time period of these markets:

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ537
2Ṁ302
3Ṁ184
4Ṁ70
5Ṁ56
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bought Ṁ100 of YES

More profit record markets! 🎉

predicted YES

@TobyBW thanks for the prompt resolution in all these markets

predicted YES

@firstuserhere you're welcome. I was so fast mostly so that I could get my own mana out of one and into the next one. But I wanted to resolve as soon as the leaderboard showed 1 million.

predicted YES

@TobyBW 😂 nice

bought Ṁ6,709 of YES
bought Ṁ9 of YES

Just looking at the noise of the profit graph (+-30k on any given day in case of Catnee) makes me think there's a non-negligible chance 1 million will be crossed in less than a week.

bought Ṁ500 of YES

@MayMeta haha so close now, really cool stuff

predicted YES

@MayMeta btw note that leaderboards refresh less frequently than the profit number on the profile. So it's better to check there for the latest updates

bought Ṁ250 of YES

@firstuserhere To be clear, resolution will depend of the leaderboard.

predicted NO

@TobyBW whale watching tips haha

predicted YES

@TobyBW yep! But you get info before others which is quite an edge

predicted YES

Yeah I was refreshing the API and user page every 10 seconds.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

From midnight on morning of May 1 at 900k to midnight on morning of May 10 at 956k, Catnee made 56k. Right now catnee is at about 945k, so they have 10 days to make the same amount they just made in 9 days for this market to resolve yes. This obviously ignores the recent losses, but I think that Catnee can do it as long as they don’t lose so much again.