Where will the next major breakthrough in AI originate from before 2025?
Private Company.
Neither (no breakthrough occurs by 2025)

In the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence, significant advancements can come from anywhere. As we approach 2025, the debate intensifies: Will the next major breakthrough in AI come from the academic corridors of universities, known for their groundbreaking research and freedom of thought, or will it emerge from the dynamic and resource-rich environment of a private company, driven by practical applications and market demands? Place your bets on whether academia or industry will lead us into the next frontier of AI. This market resolves to 'University' if the breakthrough is academically sourced, and 'Private Company' if a corporate entity claims the innovation.

Market Rules:

1. Outcome Definitions:

- University: The breakthrough is primarily attributed to a university or academic institution. This includes cases where the majority of research, development, or intellectual property originates from an academic setting.

- Private Company: The breakthrough is primarily attributed to a private company. This includes cases where the development, funding, or commercialization is led by the company.

2. Collaborative Efforts:

- If a breakthrough results from a collaboration between a university and a private company, the outcome will be determined by the leading contributor. This is assessed based on:

- Patent Ownership: The sector holding the primary patents will be considered the origin.

- Primary Authorship: If the key research paper or finding associated with the breakthrough lists a university or company as the primary affiliation of the first author, that sector will be favored.

- Funding and Resources: The sector providing the majority of funding or resources for the breakthrough project.

3. Resolution Criteria:

- The market will resolve based on credible announcements from recognized authorities in AI research and development (e.g., major tech news outlets, official press releases, patent filings).

- If a breakthrough is announced, the criteria outlined above will be applied to determine the winning category.

- The market will be closed for trading one month prior to the resolution date to ensure all information is accounted for in the final decision.

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@traders Currently, the options add up to more than 100%, so at least some of them are overpriced. To generate profit or minimize losses, consider buying NO or selling YES, respectively.

I mistakenly expected a later resonation date. Does the attention paper count as 2017? If so, then even it probably wouldn’t have met the criteria for this market if it were to resolve Jan 2018.

These markets of mine might prove useful for identifying influential papers from accedemia (and sometimes private companies publish too, eg alpha fold)

bought Ṁ100 University. NO

What will you do if it's a collaboration between Universities and private? 50% each?

@Daniel_MC Both “university” and “private company” bets might share the payout.

I will update the criteria in the description so it is more clear on how that decision will be made.

@Thehighking Thank you! Does this mean the probabilities should add up to 100%?

What are the last breakthroughs that would have qualified for this market?

@robm Probably OpenAI's GPT models advancing natural language processing, DeepMind's AlphaFold transforming bioinformatics, AI-driven drug discovery from both universities and companies like Atomwise, and innovations in autonomous vehicle technology from firms like Tesla and Waymo.

There’s also exciting work combining AI with quantum computing from places like IBM and the University of Maryland. Both academia and the private sector are making significant contributions, setting the stage for where the next big AI breakthrough might emerge!

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