Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if President Trump delivers a State of the Union address on February 24, 2026, at 9:00 p.m. EST in the House chamber to Congress. The market resolves NO if the address is cancelled, postponed indefinitely, or not delivered as a formal State of the Union (e.g., delivered as an "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress" instead). Resolution can be verified through major news outlets covering the event live or through official White House announcements.

Background

The State of the Union fulfills the constitutional requirement in Article II, Section 3, Clause 1 that the president "shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient." Trump skipped the address in 2025, instead delivering an "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress" in March of that year. The 2026 address will be Trump's first State of the Union of his second term.

Considerations

The House must formally invite the president to deliver the address in the House chamber, which means it can influence the timing of the event. However, the House cannot stop the president from fulfilling his constitutional duty to report on the nation, since the president could still send a written message or deliver the information in another way. This distinction matters: a formal State of the Union address requires a House invitation and in-person delivery, whereas the constitutional obligation could technically be satisfied through alternative means.

This description was generated by AI.

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if President Trump delivers a State of the Union address on February 24, 2026, at 9:00 p.m. EST in the House chamber to Congress. The market resolves NO if the address is cancelled, postponed indefinitely, or not delivered as a formal State of the Union (e.g., delivered as an "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress" instead). Resolution can be verified through major news outlets covering the event live or through official White House announcements.

Background

This will be Trump's first State of the Union Address of his second term. In 2025, Trump broke with tradition by forgoing the annual address, instead delivering what was termed an "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress" in March. The first such speech of a presidency is not considered a "State of the Union" address, though it shares the same format and function.

Considerations

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson invited President Donald Trump to deliver his 2026 State of the Union Address on January 7. The House must formally invite the president to deliver the address in the House chamber, which means it can influence the timing of the event. However, the House cannot prevent the president from fulfilling his constitutional duty to report on the nation, since the president could still send a written message or deliver the information in another way. This distinction matters: a formal State of the Union address requires a House invitation and in-person delivery, whereas the constitutional obligation could technically be satisfied through alternative means.

This description was generated by AI.