Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if any government shutdown (partial or full) occurs at any point during February 2026 beyond the DHS-only shutdown that began on February 14. It resolves NO if no additional shutdowns occur before March 1, 2026.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) or congressional leadership regarding funding lapses. See OMB Shutdown Guidance for official status.