State of the Union Address (SOTU)
Address to a Joint Session of Congress
Will make every effort to resolve each item based on available information from viewing the address, official and unofficial transcripts, Wikipedia, and other sources. If there is no credible source, will resolve N/A. Some items will take longer to resolve than others.
This is meant to be a fun market. If you have any question about the interpretation of an item ask before participating in it, no exceptions. Participate at your own risk.
If the Address does not happen, all pertinent items resolve NO.
All added options, if not easily resolved default to the owner, if unresponsive, will N/A.
I will try to resolve props as quickly as possible, however, this may not always be the case. If something does or does not happen and the question is not resolved in a timely manner, do not interpret it as a ruling one way or another and have it influence your decisions. I've either missed it or need to do further research after the SOTU to confirm. I will attempt to have everything resolved on the night of the event, but give me a few days to take care of anything I may have missed. Thank you!
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator may not be able to provide live resolutions during the SOTU address due to travel. Resolutions should be completed within a few days after the event. Moderators may assist with resolutions if necessary.
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@shankypanky This was resolved incorrectly: Trump called Melania a movie star, he did not mention her movie.
@SG2pSQ I agree with this interpretation, but I didn't resolve it. @10thOfficial can you say why you resolved this one Yes?
@shankypanky My mistake - I thought you made the market but I guess I don't understand the UX! @10thOfficial, the full line as reported by the NYT was:
"No one cares more about protecting America’s youth than our wonderful first lady. Now a movie star; she’s a movie star. Can you believe it? Who would’ve believed that? Over the past year, she has had an incredible impact championing A.I. legislation, advancing a landmark executive order on foster care and helping secure 30 million dollars to launch the Melania Trump Foster Youth to Independence Initiative."
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/us/politics/state-of-the-union-transcript-trump.html
To say "Zendaya is now a movie star" is not to mention the Spiderman: Homecoming movie or the Dune Part I movie, even if it is to ascribe a status on Zendaya that could be interpreted as an allusion to one of those movies depending on when the statement was made. Likewise to say "Now a movie star; she's [FLOTUS Melania Trump] is now a movie star" is not to mention the movie Melania, it is to ascribe a social status to the person Melania Trump - the fact that the speaker implicitly alleges that she gained that social status via the movie Melania does not mean the speaker mentioned the movie Melania.
I would therefore like to dispute this resolution.
@shankypanky do you or other mods want to use your mod powers here? I don't think @10thOfficial has responded to ANY comments on this market.
@mods help? The option "Trump mentions Melania's movie" should have resolved NO but it resolved YES. Please see the thread above for reasons.
@mods can you please take a look? I would really appreciate a response, even if the response is that you think this is a fair resolution.
@EvanDaniel I think @10thOfficial has not responded to any comment on this market, including requests from 2 mods now - you and @shankypanky.
It's possible they want to avoid losing mana on this? They bet YES.
@Jack1 When talking about the overthrow of Maduro, he mentioned that Maduro's place was defended by "Russian and Chinese weapons", did he not?
@PeanutbutterOrang this is just like the Obama vs Obamacare debate. IMO China the country is distinct from Chinese weapons. This should resolve NO.
@PeanutbutterOrang These are to be construed literally though: to say "Russian and Chinese military technology" is not to mention China it is to mention Chinese military technology".
@Jack1 He said "even the communist mayor of New York" which is a mention of Zohran Mamdani if not by name. Resolve YES or 20-50%
https://rollcall.com/factbase/sotu/transcript/trump-sotu-20260224/
@Jack1 why?
Context for everyone else, Jack requesting n/a is right after the following series of comments:
https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/state-of-the-union-address-2026#xjcfrok0nz
@Jack1 "Obama" meaning "Obama" is quite clear. "Obamacare" is not named for someone else. "Obama" isn't a word that merely sounds like his name but means something different. It's named for Barack Obama. The point of the term "Obamacare" is to make people hate the ACA, & make the bad parts of the legislation seem like Obama's fault, rather than Congress'. To pretend it ISN'T his name, is a level of mental gymnastics that could've just won a gold medal.
@ChurlishGambit exactly zero people are claiming Obama != Obama. I'm saying Obama != Obamacare.
The question here is:
1) do you believe the following is a reference to Obama the person or Obamacare?
2) do you believe the following is a reference to Obama the person or Obamacare?
@ChurlishGambit L'Hopital's rule is not a reference to L'Hopital. It's referring to a rule named after the guy.
@Qoiuoiuoiu But Obamacare isn’t actually the name of the act, as the act is called “Affordable Care Act.” To use Obamacare as well you would have to be intentionally referring to Obama.