Will a new non-AI technology with at least as much impact on society as the internet or TV did be developed before AGI?
12
150Ṁ1792030
22%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve to a separate poll when there is major news source consensus that human-level AGI has been achieved. I'll keep extending it until then if 2030 isn't enough time.
Should have both high impact and wide adoption, so e.g. immortality just for super rich wouldn't count, but room temperature ambient pressure superconductivity in every device would.
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