Since human extinction necessarily means no mana payout, a typical prediction market won't work. Therefore, each option will instead resolve to the proportional fraction of yes shareholders in a month.

Technologically advanced here means consciously (rather than instinctively or by instruction) designing, building, or using new technologies (including both equipment and strategies) that no 2024-extant Earth-originating nonhuman animal would be capable of understanding and imitating.

Appearing on Earth here means at least one body over which they have primary control being physically present within the atmosphere, oceans, or surface, for any perceptible length of time. Sending communication signals alone does not count, but it does if these are used to remotely control other bodies (e.g. robotic probes, obedient earth-originating creatures etc.). Appearing before human extinction and continuing to be present afterwards does count. Destroying the Earth during or after human extinction, without the previously defined presence, a does not count.

Humans going extinct here doesn't include humanity gradually becoming something else while continuously remaining a technologically advanced civilisation (e.g. merging into posthumans via evolution / genetic engineering, merging into AI via brain emulation / uploading etc.), as this would arguably be the next stage of humanity rather than its end. It does include humanity turning into entities that are no longer technologically advanced beings (not necessarily by force, but it seems very unlikely that humanity would do so by choice), which would have to re-evolve technological advancement.

Earth being destroyed here doesn't include temporary sterilisation of the biosphere that leaves the bulk of the planetary mass intact, nor gradual Ship-of-Theseus total substitution. It only includes breaking it into multiple smaller pieces if there is not continuously one dominant piece that both consists of >50% original Earth matter and contains >50% of the original matter of the Earth. It does include turning it into a form that no longer has any external visual resemblance to a planet, even if it is later reformed (e.g. hollowed-out with >50% intact spheroidal crust still resembles planet from some angles, shaped into a ringworld does not).

Examples in fictional media of each scenario:

• Earth-originating artificial intelligence:

  • Love, Death & Robots - S1E2 Three Robots

• Earth-originating posthuman species:

  • All Tomorrows by Nemo Ramjet (excluding the asteromorphs)

  • Wayward Pines (if humanity fully died out)

• Earth-originating nonhuman species:

  • The Future is Wild - S1E13 The Tentacled Forest (if the squibbons continued to evolve)

  • Planet of the Apes (if humanity fully died out)

• Extraterrestrial artificial intelligence:

  • Gorge by Qntm (if humanity fully died out)

• Extraterrestrial nonhuman species:

  • The War of the Worlds (if humanity fully died out)

• None, Earth is already destroyed before or during human extinction:

  • The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (if humanity fully died out)

• None, Earth is destroyed before any technologically advanced beings appear:

  • The Universe - S1E3 The End of The Earth