[Trader number poll] Who would be so good that you would vote for them over yourself in a presidential election?
Basic
16
Ṁ495
Jan 21
91%
Siddhartha Gautama / the Buddha
78%
Jesus of Nazareth
67%
Nick Bostrom
56%
George Washington
54%
Scott Alexander
41%
Peter Singer
39%
Kamala Harris
36%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
34%
J D Vance
34%
Oprah Winfrey
25%
Holden Karnofsky
24%
Elon Musk
22%
Yahweh / Jehovah / God the Father
13%
A generic Democrat with 4+ years of political experience
6%
Joe Biden
5%
A generic Republican with 4+ years of political experience
5%
Aella
4%
Donald Trump
3%
A randomly selected US citizen

Trader number poll to resolve the following market:

All options resolve n/a, so all mana bet will be returned to you.

I'm using a trader number poll because there is still no option on Manifold to cheaply bundle multiple separate polls together like for markets.

For each option, bet any amount yes to signify that you would vote for this person instead of yourself in a presidential election.

Conversely, for each option, bet any amount no to signify that you would vote for yourself instead of this person in a presidential election.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
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sold Ṁ5 YES

@TheAllMemeingEye

  • For context, a broad summary of my current philosophical and political beliefs would be:

    • Epistemics i.e. fundamentally what is true?: empiricism, rationalism, scientific method

    • Normative ethics i.e. fundamentally what is good?: moral realism, consequentialism, pluralist balance between negative-leaning utilitarianism and egoism

    • Applied ethics i.e. in practice what should we do as individuals to achieve goodness?: effective altruism

    • Politics i.e. in practice what system should society use to achieve goodness?

      • Economic politics i.e. system of production and distribution of resources and services: at least Nordic-style welfarism, possibly experimenting via charter cities with anarcho-communism (worker-owned democratically-controlled industry, decentralised planned economy with UBI)

      • Governmental politics i.e. system of leadership and law enforcement: proportional representation democracy for parliament, iterated universal nomination election for technocratic council of advisors, anti-authoritarianism (Nordic-style reformative/restorative justice, anti-censorship/propaganda, radical transparency/accountability of government)

      • Cultural politics i.e. system of attitude towards societal changes like religion, moral circle expansion, globalisation, and technology: hyper-progressivism, secularism, universal compassion (feminism, anti-racism, LGBT+ rights, animal rights, AI rights, alien rights), hyper-internationalism (world government, mostly open borders with harmful ideology vetting), techno-cautious (especially regarding x/s-risk technologies like AGI/ASI, WMDs, nanotech, brain upload emulation etc.)

On why some may not be voting on all. Perhaps they feel they wouldn't vote in a way to generate profit. Hence many single coin votes from me. I know I could vote "0" mana with some effort, but haven't gone that far. The ones I haven't voted on, I need more time with or are genuine abstentions. Largely I agree with the platform of the market creator, but need some time to make my mind whether I would trust myself or them to implement it's goals best, and whether the nuances influence strongly enough to counteract their putative supremacy in character.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen fair enough, that makes sense 👍

I'll admit I'm kinda surprised that so many people are voting on some but not all of the options, there is no individual option on which more than half of total voters have voted on it, with most being closer to a third

@TheAllMemeingEye Name recognition is at play. I haven't researched every person here, so an abstaining vote has more personal utility to me than a coin toss.

But then again, I did vote YES for lottocracy. So...

@Quroe fair enough, this doesn't specifically apply to you but I find it's a little strange that more than half the voters have no opinion on someone as famous and polarising as Trump or Biden lol

@TheAllMemeingEye Almost as if there could be a chilling effect. (Or people have a stake on the originating market.)

@Quroe what's a chilling effect in this context? I'm assuming it's not to do with temperature lol

@TheAllMemeingEye Maybe there are people who don't want to put their vote out there for fear of retaliation - the chilling effect of making people not want to speak.

I would imagine some people would not want to incur the wrath of the real President or their supporters because of their digital footprint. Fictional ones? That might be worth the risk of a silly internet poll.

By the way, I voted YES for you here. Remember me fondly when you take your first seat behind the Resolute Desk.

@Quroe ah, thanks, that makes sense now

Remember me fondly when you take your first seat behind the Resolute Desk.

I shall haha 🤞

bought Ṁ1 YES

YES on Jesus is just pearly gates insurance.

@No_uh do you feel the same about God the Father?

bought Ṁ1 YES

I think lottocracy is criminally underrated.

@Quroe sortition worked well for the athenians, though it was for an assembly, and for councils

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I recall hearing once that under Athenian democracy there was never a two year period in which they didn't vote to go to war haha

@Quroe what do you feel are the main advantages?

@TheAllMemeingEye Lottocracy eliminates the near (but not entirely) necessary need for a worldview that craves power for power's sake in order to be successful in a our current system. The worldview of the modal person will probably be more closely aligned with the population in that regard. Also, you wouldn't have the top percentage of wealthy people in the seat of power most of the time, so maybe we'd get policy movement that aligns with the needs of the wider population more often.

I would hope that, if we had a lottocratic President, the office would have a crash course designed to bring The Chosen One™️ up to speed and make them competent. We would otherwise need to devote much more effort and resources to the public education sector to raise baseline competency across the board.

Lottocracy has its boons and banes. Exploring the idea is a worthwhile use of mental bandwidth.

@Quroe fair enough, you make a pretty good case

sold Ṁ5 YES

@TheAllMemeingEye

  • For context, a broad summary of my current philosophical and political beliefs would be:

    • Epistemics i.e. fundamentally what is true?: empiricism, rationalism, scientific method

    • Normative ethics i.e. fundamentally what is good?: moral realism, consequentialism, pluralist balance between negative-leaning utilitarianism and egoism

    • Applied ethics i.e. in practice what should we do as individuals to achieve goodness?: effective altruism

    • Politics i.e. in practice what system should society use to achieve goodness?

      • Economic politics i.e. system of production and distribution of resources and services: at least Nordic-style welfarism, possibly experimenting via charter cities with anarcho-communism (worker-owned democratically-controlled industry, decentralised planned economy with UBI)

      • Governmental politics i.e. system of leadership and law enforcement: proportional representation democracy for parliament, iterated universal nomination election for technocratic council of advisors, anti-authoritarianism (Nordic-style reformative/restorative justice, anti-censorship/propaganda, radical transparency/accountability of government)

      • Cultural politics i.e. system of attitude towards societal changes like religion, moral circle expansion, globalisation, and technology: hyper-progressivism, secularism, universal compassion (feminism, anti-racism, LGBT+ rights, animal rights, AI rights, alien rights), hyper-internationalism (world government, mostly open borders with harmful ideology vetting), techno-cautious (especially regarding x/s-risk technologies like AGI/ASI, WMDs, nanotech, brain upload emulation etc.)

@TheAllMemeingEye whoa, is the all memeing eye based?

@No_uh haha thanks, this is the highest honour I can receive 🫡

reposted

Get out here and vote (for my preferred candidates) 🗳️

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