What will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's spreadsheet at the end of 2022 do?

Mini

8

Ṁ148resolved Apr 6

ResolvedN/A

1D

1W

1M

ALL

0.6%Other

15%

Malaria chemoprevention

13%

Bednets

0.0%

Cash transfers

3%

Unconditional cash transfers

7%

Conditional cash transfers for vaccination

9%

Deworming

53%

Vitamin A supplementiation

0.6%

AI Safety

I will take the sum of the "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after accounting for leverage/funging" values, weighted by the "Percentage of funding to be allocated to each country with marginal donations", for each charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet, and resolve at the intervention that the highest-scoring charity by this metric is performing. If these fields do not exist, I will resolve ambiguously.
An example of this resolution procedure for the 2021 spreadsheet is here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/#comment-77043.
This would have resolved "Vitamin A supplementation" for 2021 and 2020, and "Deworming" for 2019, 2018 and 2017.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

## Related questions

Which charities will be recommended by Animal Charity Evaluators at the end of 2024?

Which of GiveWell's top charity areas will be demoted first?

How much will GiveWell report for total money moved in 2023?

480m

How much will GiveWell report for total money moved in 2022?

490m

Will I donate >$2k by the end of 2024?

64% chance

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?

What will Givewell's top-rated interventions be at the end of 2025?

Will any of the GiveWell top recommended charities be Malaria-related at the end of 2030?

58% chance

Will GiveWell get a new institutional funder (or the Gates Foundation) which gives $100M in a single financial year before 2030?

46% chance

If GiveWell exists, how much will GiveWell report for total money moved in 2025?

690m

Sort by:

Resolved N/A because the fields no longer exist; they were removed in the March 31st update to the spreadsheet. https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2022

Matching the probablity of the other market: https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-the-most-costeffective-charity

## Related questions

## Related questions

Which charities will be recommended by Animal Charity Evaluators at the end of 2024?

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?

Which of GiveWell's top charity areas will be demoted first?

What will Givewell's top-rated interventions be at the end of 2025?

How much will GiveWell report for total money moved in 2023?

480m

Will any of the GiveWell top recommended charities be Malaria-related at the end of 2030?

58% chance

How much will GiveWell report for total money moved in 2022?

490m

Will GiveWell get a new institutional funder (or the Gates Foundation) which gives $100M in a single financial year before 2030?

46% chance

Will I donate >$2k by the end of 2024?

64% chance

If GiveWell exists, how much will GiveWell report for total money moved in 2025?

690m