Will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet at the end of 2022 be a Vitamin A supplementation charity?
Apr 6
M$267 bet
I will take the sum of the "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after accounting for leverage/funging" values, weighted by the "Percentage of funding to be allocated to each country with marginal donations", for each charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet, and resolve YES if the highest-scoring charity is a Vitamin A supplementation program. If these fields do not exist, I will resolve ambiguously. An example of this resolution procedure for the 2021 spreadsheet is here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/#comment-77043. This would have resolved YES for 2021 and 2020, and NO in previous years. Jan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #Givewell
Tetraspace bought M$1 of NO
The fields no longer exist; they were removed in the March 31st update to the spreadsheet. https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2022

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