Resolves N/A if AI does not have an OK outcome. Otherwise, resolves YES if: either humans are enhanced to allow for AI alignment OR some other technology takes us to the glorious transhuman future AND the pause was necessary in buying time for this. And NO otherwise.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 31% chance (2 traders, as of Apr 7, 2026).

If AGI has an okay outcome, will it be via the MIRI path of a pause ended with the help of some other technology?

If AGI has an okay outcome, will it be via the MIRI path of a pause ended with the help of some other technology?

Ṁ100Ṁ70

2038

31%

chance

ALL

Resolves N/A if AI does not have an OK outcome.

Otherwise, resolves YES if:

either humans are enhanced to allow for AI alignment OR some other technology takes us to the glorious transhuman future
AND the pause was necessary in buying time for this.

And NO otherwise.

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