If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton? | Manifold

If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton?

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An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:

An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.

This resolves YES if I can easily point to the single AGI that has an okay outcome, and NO otherwise.

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Do you have a neat general definition of "single AI"? (Note: it's fine to say No, I don't have one ready and wouldn't want you to waste time on this).

More specific cases: Were all responses from GPT-4o in the OpenAI API part of the same AI? How about GPT-4 and GPT-4o together?

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