Will there be a conflict in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections?”

Question

This market resolves YES if a direct military conflict involving Iran occurs after the U.S. midterm elections (November 2026) and before December 31, 2026.

Examples of YES resolution:

U.S. or Israeli military strikes on Iranian territory

Iranian military attack on U.S. forces

Full-scale war declaration

Examples of NO resolution:

Diplomatic tensions only

Sanctions

Proxy conflicts without direct involvement

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 33% chance (5 traders, as of Jun 26, 2026).

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