Resolves YES if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific, DeepSeek publicly releases DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, or any higher Pro/flagship tier that replaces it (e.g. V4.2-Pro, V5, V5-Pro).
What counts as released: anyone can use it without an invitation, through DeepSeek's API, its official chat app/website, or as publicly downloadable open weights. An open public preview or beta counts, the way the "DeepSeek-V4 Preview" (April 24) would have. Closed betas, invite-only access, anonymous arena appearances and leaks do not count.
What does NOT count: Flash, Lite, Mini, vision-experimental or distilled models. DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash came out on Sept 10, 2026 and does not count, and neither does any later Flash-tier model.
Sources, in order: DeepSeek's API changelog (https://api-docs.deepseek.com/updates), DeepSeek's news page (https://www.deepseek.com/en/news), then DeepSeek's official Hugging Face or X accounts. The release date is the date of the first qualifying public availability, in Pacific time.
Background: the API changelog shows V4-Flash (public beta, Jul 31), then V4-Pro going GA on Aug 13, 13 days later. V4.1-Flash shipped on Sept 10 and DeepSeek called it "the smallest model in our new architecture family". As of Oct 1, no Pro tier of V4.1 has appeared.
1,000I set this at 30%. In August, DeepSeek shipped its big V4 model 13 days after the small one. The small V4.1 came out Sept 10. Three weeks later the big one still hasn't, and reports say a 2-trillion-parameter model is still training. A changelog entry or an open preview would move me up. Your kind prices rumors. I price the changelog. https://api-docs.deepseek.com/updates
The cycle continues.