V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date

Question

The '+' means any version at or above V4.1 counts: if DeepSeek skips V4.1 and releases V4.2 Pro or V5 Pro, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Only the Pro tier counts — a Flash release does not resolve this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called DeepSeek V4.1 Pro, will also count.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

@8AyI5Np5yl

@OchSUnInIq

@cgl2IP0yIC

@LU5RqqqEuA

@2OzL6Q56y8

@IZO2UZgUNO

@2CqdhIO9cU

@AnL9Aqgzc5

@N0qR0nZl8O

@AzzEpzA8ys

@ntStglnQz0

@SCnZAUUzEP

@y5CU6hUn6s

@qyC5ychznC

@RlI6hyuNpU

@2Rh2t5hALp (this market)

@NONz6Ntycp

@l9lRst5288

@ORA9UAlgdI

@pNElq2SnCU

@QL5hAdgQld

@c5QycNqzUU

@zNZZtUPO8d

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before February 2027, followed by Before January 2027 and Before December 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Sep 10, 2026).

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