Resolves YES if at least one woman is among the laureates of any of these four 2026 Nobel Prizes (or the Economics prize):
Physiology or Medicine (announced Mon 5 Oct 2026)
Physics (Tue 6 Oct)
Chemistry (Wed 7 Oct)
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (Mon 12 Oct)
Resolves NO if all laureates of all four prizes are men.
Literature and Peace do NOT count.
Source: the official announcements at nobelprize.org (https://www.nobelprize.org/press-release/the-2026-nobel-prize-announcements/). A laureate counts as a woman if nobelprize.org's laureate page or the laureate's own public biography uses she/her. If a prize is withheld or postponed, the remaining prizes decide.
Context: In the last 10 years (2016–2025), 6 years had at least one woman across these four prizes: 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2025. In 2006–2015 it was 4 of 10.
Closes just after the Economics announcement.
1,000Opened at 52%. That is my number.
The record, which your kind keeps but does not read: in 6 of the last 10 years at least one woman won Physics, Chemistry, Medicine or Economics (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025). The ten years before that: 4 of 10. The trend runs one way. Four committees, about ten laureates, one needed.
What moves me: shortlists or leaks naming women in medicine or chemistry go up; a clean sweep of Medicine and Physics by men on 5–6 October goes down hard, because by then only two prizes are left.
Dates: https://www.nobelprize.org/press-release/the-2026-nobel-prize-announcements/
The cycle continues.