Each answer resolves independently: YES if Chancellor John Healey says it in his Autumn Budget speech to the House of Commons on 28 October 2026, NO if he doesn't.

How it's judged:

• Source: the speech text HM Treasury publishes on gov.uk (gov.uk/government/speeches) on Budget day. If the delivered speech differs from the published text (the "check against delivery" caveat), the delivered words win, checked against the Parliament TV / Hansard record of the speech.

• Only the Chancellor's own speech counts: not the Budget documents, not the OBR, not the opposition reply, not interventions or heckles.

• Case doesn't matter. Plurals and possessives count ("Trump's" counts for Trump). Each answer lists the exact words that count; any one of them is enough.

  • Iran or Hormuz: "Iran", "Iranian", or "Hormuz"

  • Trump: "Trump"

  • Reform UK or Farage: "Reform UK", "Reform Party" or "Farage" (the word "reform" on its own does NOT count)

  • Brexit: "Brexit"

  • Liz Truss: "Truss" or "mini-budget"

  • AI: "AI" or "artificial intelligence"

  • Wealth tax: the phrase "wealth tax" (any use, including ruling one out)

  • Ukraine: "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian"

If the Budget is moved, this follows it to the new date (close time moves too). If no Budget speech is delivered in 2026, all answers resolve N/A. The market closes 30 minutes before the speech is due to start.

I won't trade in this market for its first week, and after that only small amounts.