YES if the Budget announces a tax levied on land values, national or local. Polymarket's 17% on 21 Sep 2026 is for a differently worded question, a percentage levy on the value of a home; this market requires a tax on land values. The Prime Minister ruled out replacing council tax on 27 July 2026.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. YES needs a tax whose base is the value of land excluding buildings; a split-rate tax counts for its land element. Taxes on whole-property values (council tax, including new bands or a revaluation, the High Value Council Tax Surcharge, stamp duty or a proportional property tax) do not count, nor do charges on the uplift in land value from planning permission or infrastructure, such as the Community Infrastructure Levy or a land value capture levy. A new power for local or mayoral authorities to levy a land value tax counts only if the Budget documents say it will be legislated. No one held shares in this market when this was added.