YES if the Budget gives England's mayoral authorities a new power to levy a tax, or assigns them a stated share of receipts from a named national tax, with a start date. A commitment to consult or negotiate resolves NO. The Treasury's 31 July 2026 Budget announcement was titled 'power and money out of Westminster'.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget. The creator may trade in this market; resolution follows the published Budget documents.