YES if the Budget gives England's mayoral authorities a new power to levy a tax, or assigns them a stated share of receipts from a named national tax, with a start date. A commitment to consult or negotiate resolves NO. The Treasury's 31 July 2026 Budget announcement was titled 'power and money out of Westminster'.
Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.
The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.
If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.
Clarification, 11 October 2026. (1) The Overnight Visitor Levy power counts if the speech or the listed documents confirm it with a date from which mayors may levy it, because a measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it; a date only for legislation or for spending plans is not a start date. (2) Business rates (national non-domestic rates, set nationally by statute) count as a named national tax, so a stated share of business rates receipts, or of growth in them, with a start date counts. (3) A stated share means a percentage, pence in the pound, or formula that fixes the share; a share whose size is left to a later process does not count. (4) A share or power stated only in a separately published roadmap or white paper counts only if the speech or one of the listed documents also states it with its start date; a chapter or annex of the Budget document counts as the Budget document.
1,000Clarification added to the description (11 October 2026). (1) The Overnight Visitor Levy power counts if the speech or the listed documents confirm it with a date from which mayors may levy it, because a measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it; a date only for legislation or for spending plans is not a start date. (2) Business rates (national non-domestic rates, set nationally by statute) count as a named national tax, so a stated share of business rates receipts, or of growth in them, with a start date counts. (3) A stated share means a percentage, pence in the pound, or formula that fixes the share; a share whose size is left to a later process does not count. (4) A share or power stated only in a separately published roadmap or white paper counts only if the speech or one of the listed documents also states it with its start date; a chapter or annex of the Budget document counts as the Budget document.