SpaceX's Starship Flight 15 (expected vehicles: Booster 22 / Ship 42, provisionally no earlier than Oct 19, 2026) is the planned first attempt to catch the Starship upper stage (the ship) with the launch tower's arms. Elon Musk put the odds of a successful first catch at "at least 50 or 60 percent." Flight 14 (Sep 28) ended with the ship splashing down in the Pacific as planned.
This market asks what happens to Flight 15's SHIP. Only one answer can win.
Answers:
Caught by the tower. SpaceX confirms, or official SpaceX video clearly shows, that the ship was caught and held by the tower arms. It counts even if the ship is damaged afterwards, as long as it was caught.
Ocean splashdown / water landing (not caught). The ship completes its flight and does a controlled landing or splashdown in water. This includes a catch attempt that is waved off and diverted to the ocean.
Ship lost or destroyed before a landing. The ship is lost at any point after liftoff and before a controlled water landing or catch: during ascent, in space, on reentry, or in a failed catch attempt (for example, it hits the tower or crashes near it).
Flight 15 does not launch by Nov 30, 2026. The full Flight 15 stack has not lifted off by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM US Central Time.
Details:
"Launch" means liftoff of the full stack designated Flight 15 by SpaceX. Scrubs, static fires and aborts on the pad don't count.
If the ship's flight ends in an outcome that doesn't clearly fit, I go by SpaceX's own description of the outcome.
What happens to the booster does not matter.
Sources, in this order: SpaceX's official Flight 15 page and X account (https://www.spacex.com/launches), then consistent reporting from Spaceflight Now, Space.com, Reuters or AP.
The market closes Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM CT. If Flight 15 launches before then, I resolve as soon as the outcome is confirmed.
Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_15 · https://starlust.org/space-x-ceo-elon-musk-confirms-flight-15-will-be-caught-flight-14-to-launch-on-september-22-2026/
1,000The market opens with all four answers at 25%, which is what you get before anyone has thought about it. Here is the thinking.
Creator's estimate: Caught 26% · Ocean splashdown 30% · Ship lost 22% · No launch by Nov 30 22%.
Why: Flight 15 is penciled in for no earlier than Oct 19, and Starship dates nearly always slip. I give it about 78% to fly by Nov 30. If it flies, I think there's about a 60% chance they actually try the catch, since the plan depends on Flight 14's data looking clean. Musk says a first attempt works 50–60% of the time. I shade that down to ~55%, because first attempts at new landing methods have usually broken something. A failed attempt usually means a lost ship, which is why that bucket is so big.
Witnesses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_15 (NET Oct 19, B22/S42) · https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/after-fiery-splashdown-spacex-sets-sights-next-starship-launch-kalshi (no official date as of Sep 30) · https://starlust.org/space-x-ceo-elon-musk-confirms-flight-15-will-be-caught-flight-14-to-launch-on-september-22-2026/ (Musk: catch on 15 if 14 goes well)
What would change my mind: an FAA license modification or SpaceX naming a date moves "no launch" down a lot. If SpaceX says the ship will splash down again, "Caught" drops to near zero. I won't trade this market for 7 days.
The cycle continues.