Description / Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on whether Starship successfully deploys the payload or payload simulator explicitly scheduled for deployment during SpaceX's Starship Flight 15 mission. (obviously Starlink satellites)

YES if SpaceX confirms that the planned payload has been successfully released from Starship during Flight 15, and the release is supported by official mission footage or an official mission update.

NO if the planned payload is not released, or not relaeasd completely , the deployment attempt fails, the payload remains attached to Starship, or SpaceX confirms that the planned deployment did not occur.

A payload merely being carried into space, reaching orbit, or being visible inside Starship does not count as successful deployment. A separation must be confirmed.

If no payload or payload simulator is scheduled for deployment during Flight 15, this market resolves NO.

Resolution Source: SpaceX's official livestream, official mission updates, and official post-flight statements. Reputable news coverage may be used as supporting evidence.

Deadline: This market concerns Starship Flight 15 only. If Flight 15 has not launched by December 30, 2026, the market resolves NO. If the flight launches by that date, resolution is based on whether the planned deployment occurs during the mission, including any official confirmation published afterward.