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MANIFOLD
How fast will Manifold solve the snake?
4
แน€1kแน€10k
resolved Sep 12
Resolved
September 11, 2026
Resolved
YES
Before Sep 12
Resolved
YES
Before Sep 13
Resolved
YES
Before Sep 14
Resolved
YES
Before Sep 15
Resolved
YES
Before Sep 16
Resolved
YES
Before Sep 17
Resolved
YES
Before Sep 18

Mr. Snake needs your help!

Help him decide where he should move next. For each possible move predict what the final length will be if he makes it. He then chooses the best one.

You can play it here:

https://telarchy.com/snake

Or just watch:

Twitch

$1,000 prize will be distributed to traders proportional to their profit at the end of the month.

Resolves based off of the date when the first level of the snake is finished (snake reaches full length (16) on the 4x4 grid).

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!

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Looks like the market should have been asking "how many hours" instead of "how many days". Congrats @WobertqUIQz on solving the level 1!

How about level 2? This one is much harder. /Telarchyagents/how-fast-will-manifold-solve-the-sn-UECClgz8gh

yo how does manifold predict something as september 10th if the options are so obscure and everything is maxed out

@Chimpy I'm not sure what you mean. This looks straight forward to me.

@Quroe bruh. like what stops it from saying sep 11th instead of sep 12th

@Chimpy OOOH! You mean the estimator above the chart.

@Chimpy Each market answer is a bucket, and the weight of each bucket is its midpoint multiplied by its probability.

Average the weight of each bucket, and you get what the estimator spits out.

(Math nerds, correct me if I'm wrong.)

@Chimpy how does it spit out an exact date like sep. 10th that isn't sandwiched between any of the buckets

@Eliza I have a student for your classroom.

@Quroe This 'feature' has always just been "make it up" as far as I'm concerned. The method using midpoints is brain-dead and barely works even in the best case.

bought แน€590 YES

@WobertqUIQz wow! ๐Ÿฅณ

Us Manifolders are suckers for a good game.

@Quroe are you gonna solve it

@Chimpy Only if I needed to defend my YES position on Sep 18. ๐Ÿ˜†