Will Tesla begin using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles before January 1, 2025?
27
3.5k
2025
56%
chance

On April 7, 2022, a display for the product was featured at the Tesla Giga Texas manufacturing facility during the Cyber Rodeo event. Musk said that he hopes to have the robot production-ready by 2023 and claimed Optimus will eventually be able to do "anything that humans don’t want to do."

In June 2022, Musk announced the first prototype that Tesla hopes to unveil later in 2022 at the second AI Day event will not look anything like the display model at Cyber Rodeo.

In September 2022, semi-functional prototypes of Optimus were displayed at Tesla's second AI Day. One prototype was able to walk about the stage and another, sleeker version could move its arms.

On September 23, 2023, Tesla posted a video of Optimus manipulating and sorting objects as well as yoga poses:

Optimus can now sort objects autonomously 🤖

Its neural network is trained fully end-to-end: video in, controls out.

Come join to help develop Optimus (& improve its yoga routine 🧘)

tesla.com/AI

https://x.com/tesla_optimus/status/1705728820693668189?s=46&t=qfz6dEzytObZisI2GEll9g

RESOLUTION: This market will resolve YES if Tesla begins using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles to be sold to customers before January 1, 2025. This question resolves NO if Tesla does NOT begin using Optimus Tesla Bots to produce electric vehicles before January 1, 2025.

DISCLAIMER: I may place a bet on this market, but will certainly resolve this question fairly.

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“Deployed two Optimus bots performing tasks in the factory autonomously“

I haven’t seen evidence that these bots are performing functional, non-performative tasks, replacing human workers or traditional factory robots. My assumption is instead they are performing tasks for training, testing, or marketing purposes, but am open to new information and will update as this deployment of bots progresses.

Will this resolve to YES if Optimus does anything in the line of production? or the majority? or everything?

@kirby Thanks for asking for clarification. I think based on how the question is worded, it would be fair to only require Optimus being used for some portion of tasks in the line of production for the question to resolve yes, and not require Optimus to do everything.

@TP8ac2 What if it's there only for show? Like "we have Optimus here, he's in charge of passing the bolts from this tray to this other tray"

@kirby Based on the spirit and straightforward meaning of the question, my opinion is it should be fairly clear that Optimus is/are being used in a functional way, and one that replaces either human or traditional robotic tasks on the production line. If Optimus is being used in a superfluous way just for marketing purposes, the market should resolve as no.

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