2028 US election: peaceful transfer of power to a non-authoritarian leader?
15
1kαΉ€1364
2029
75%
chance

This market assesses the likelihood of a peaceful transition of power to a leader not characterized by authoritarian tendencies following the 2028 U.S. presidential election. A "Yes" resolution would require that the election proceeds without significant unrest, the incoming president is broadly recognized as non-authoritarian, and the outcome is accepted by both the public and relevant institutions. Resolution will rely on reputable news sources and official reports.

  • Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The definition of non-authoritarian has been clarified. The incoming president will be considered non-authoritarian if they are classified as such based on analysis by:

    • At least two reputable, independent political science or human-rights organizations (e.g., Freedom House, V-Dem, Polity).

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What criteria determine if a leader is considered authoritarian for the purposes of this question? Do they need to do authoritarian things during the election, or can they just ideologically seem authoritarian? If the later, what how do you define this?

@ElijahRavitzCampbell Right, I should've been clearer there. This is the criteria I'd propose.

Based on analysis by at least two reputable, independent political science or human-rights organizations (e.g., Freedom House, V-Dem, Polity), the incoming president is classified as β€œnon-authoritarian”

bought αΉ€50 YES

would it count if jd vance was elected I assume not because he's authoritarian?

@remedyrain I guess the response to this would be what I gave to Elijah above. I hope that's good enough?

@SuryaPali yep, that's great ty!

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