This market assesses the likelihood of a peaceful transition of power to a leader not characterized by authoritarian tendencies following the 2028 U.S. presidential election. A "Yes" resolution would require that the election proceeds without significant unrest, the incoming president is broadly recognized as non-authoritarian, and the outcome is accepted by both the public and relevant institutions. Resolution will rely on reputable news sources and official reports.
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The definition of non-authoritarian has been clarified. The incoming president will be considered non-authoritarian if they are classified as such based on analysis by:
At least two reputable, independent political science or human-rights organizations (e.g., Freedom House, V-Dem, Polity).
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@ElijahRavitzCampbell Right, I should've been clearer there. This is the criteria I'd propose.
Based on analysis by at least two reputable, independent political science or human-rights organizations (e.g., Freedom House, V-Dem, Polity), the incoming president is classified as βnon-authoritarianβ
@remedyrain I guess the response to this would be what I gave to Elijah above. I hope that's good enough?