StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds
closes Mar 30
Will the comments to this market successfully count to 10 with at least 4 hours between comments, with no interruptions?
3%
chance

If successive comments appear with this format: "<N>" where N is the next number in the sequence 1,2,3,...,10, and there is at least 4 hours between each comment, then this market resolves true.

If the comments are too close together, that invalidates the chain. If comments not following the format appear, that invalidates the chain.

Only top level comments count.

The only way this can be resolved true is if there are 10 successive comments following the increasing number format from 1.

The comments can be from the same or different people.

The market can resolve instantaneously. So for example if I check the comments and see a winning state, it would resolve.

Forgot the deadline: Mar 30 9am PST

Derivative market:

/Odoacre/will-the-count-to-ten-market-succes-7fa1c14e3140

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NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

0

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 5%

2

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 5%

1

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 5%

10

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

2

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 5%

1

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

7

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

6

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

5

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

4

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 4%

3

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

2

levifinkelstein avatar
levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 3%

1

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

0

levifinkelstein avatar
levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 3%

1

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

1

levifinkelstein avatar
levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 3%

1

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

1

levifinkelstein avatar
levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 3%

1

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 3%

1

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 3%
levifinkelstein avatar
levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 3%

1

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

2

levifinkelstein avatar
levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 3%

1

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

1

levifinkelstein avatar
levi finkelsteinbought Ṁ10 of YES

nice pump guys

jack avatar
Jackis predicting NO at 3%

8

RahulShah avatar
Rahul Shah

7

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 3%

6

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

5

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 3%

4

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 3%

3

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

2

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

1

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksbought Ṁ150 of NO

For team YES to win they need at least 40 hours of uninterrupted control of the comments. That's assuming they consistently post the next number every 4 hours on the dot.

For team NO to win we just have to post anything other than the next number any time within that 40 hours. We could even post the next number so long as we do it early.

I get on manifold every day to get that extra mana from my streak (day 29 now). I'm subscribed to the comments on this market. If it was just me on team NO vs 1000 people on team YES, I would still win.

My question for team YES: why are you throwing your mana away?

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@LukeHanks yes. I was ambitious in the creation of the market.

One thing though. You as bi may profit more by not immediately killing every run. If it got to seven or eight, the price might go up, leading to cheaper NOs.

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@StrayClimb you as NO*.

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 3%

@StrayClimb Good idea. I'll even help with the counting. Though I have to confess, I don't have a lot of experience edging people.

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@StrayClimb Also, there are no YES holders remaining.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

maybe we can come to a coasean resolution to this dilemma?

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%

:frustration:

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

baka

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%

1

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

3w3

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 9%

3

Duncn avatar
Duncn

2

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

1

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnis predicting NO at 9%

One time I thought I had bedbugs in my apartment, so I took to hiding in my shower and sleeping there each night in a nest made out of sheets and blankets. This went on for 2 months before I realized my itchy skin was caused by stress.

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

1

Duncn avatar
Duncn

2

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%

🤦 I'm dumb

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%

ok, you lost me 😂

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 9%

🇩🇪🚫

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 9%

@JimHays nein

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%
♆
JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 9%

🪅

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 9%

📳📳📳📳📳

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%

🕓

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 9%

tres

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%

II

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 9%

l

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 9%

"1"

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 9%

7

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 9%

3

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

2

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 15%

1

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 15%

@JimHays There’s a leading space, but you can’t see it

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@JimHays looks valid to me. (I don't count the left margin ever anyway)

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 15%

@StrayClimb I think either the backend or front end strips it out before display

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds
Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 15%

What does successive comments mean exactly? Do you mean simply in time or in the threaded view as displayed in the UI?

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@Odoacre hmm yes good q. Let's say top level comments only.

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 15%

@StrayClimb uh, sorry but that does not answer my question.

Do you mean that it goes by whatever the UI displays, but only for top level comments. ? Am I allowed to manipulate the UI?

Whatever you decide, can you please update the description?

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@Odoacre what do you mean by manipulate the UI? Can people hide their own comments now?

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 15%

@StrayClimb I meant by injecting some JavaScript

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@StrayClimb I wouldn't see that though. So I'll clarify: win attempts must be in my normal UI

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting NO at 15%

@StrayClimb I might trick you into downloading some .js

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 15%

@Odoacre That wouldn’t be Reynolds’ “normal UI” though

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@JimHays yes. Also keep in mind manifold might ship comment removal or editing.

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 15%

@StrayClimb If they ship comment editing, which timestamp are you using, comment creation_at or updated_at?

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@JimHays I'm using what I see in the comment list order

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 15%

2️⃣

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@JimHays no believers may profit more by letting it get close.

Odoacre avatar
Odoacrebought Ṁ10 of NO

1

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 28%

<2>

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysbought Ṁ10 of NO

Who am I to doubt the market creator, but don’t there need to be angle brackets for it to count?

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

@JimHays no, that was part of the template for replacement

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysis predicting NO at 28%

@StrayClimb 👍🏼

Not how I would have read that, but with your clarification here it seems clear now

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

1

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnis predicting NO at 50%

oh, sorry! I mean: "2"! (am I doing it right?)

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnbought Ṁ30 of NO

hello, good luck to anyone who wants to bet on YES (I will be here daily talking about my various psychological problems. Did you know that I developed hypochondria at the age of 8?)

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

1