Will autonomous lethal weapons platforms or "robot soldiers" be deployed in any conflict by end 2030?
14
43
290
2031
90%
chance

The conflict could be formal military engagements, but also civil uprisings or riots; I'm using a broad definition of "conflict", though there must be a field of engagement. The weapons platform could be a drone, a vehicular weapons targeting and firing system, a missile that chooses targets and launches itself, a self-guided ground assault device, or any number of other things.

Must be:

"Autonomous" - able to act without direct human action, and do so in a combat context. Can have oversight and be interruptible by human operators, but not require it. Must also be physically detached from human soldiers (no infantry firearms or supplemental gear that is unable to act when not attached to infantry helmets, packs, armor, etc.), though can be embedded into vehicles.

"Lethal" - equipped with lethal armaments intended for use on human targets, not simply a support or nonlethal pacification robot.

"Deployed" - present on the field of engagement in a nonreserve capacity.

Static explosive devices like mines and claymores don't count.

Doesn't need to actually fire or use its lethal tools against human targets, though they must be equipped while deployed.

Resolves YES if the criteria are met at any point after question creation and reported via verifiable media. Resolves NO shortly after close otherwise.

Shorter term version:

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Semi-relevant arbitration opportunity:

Ukrainians claim they deployed such system https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1750414280350912997, heard (no link now) that Russians also claim this. Will probably take time to clear up the specifics (e.g. does the system require that a human guides the drones to the area of action?)

Would immovable autonomous turrets count? (Like https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SGR-A1

)count if deployed in a conflict? Or is mobility important?

predicts NO

@MartinModrak ooo interesting edge case! I'm inclined to agree that they would, though they don't yet hit the "deployed" requirement as there's no active battle. how do traders here feel?

Patriot is advertised as „automated operations - including man-in-the-loop (human) override“. Is that sufficiently „autonomous“?

I assume it does not fulfill the „lethal“ condition because it only targets missiles.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@MaxPayne Can Patriot fire on its own? In any case, you're correct on the second point unless, in this case, we see evidence of it firing itself against manned aircraft