If an orgy happens, will it involve the Manifest ball pit or waterplay?

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Ṁ495

resolved Sep 24

Resolved

ALL

The "teamwork" is definitely happening (~30% chance according to bettors, as of writing) -> /Stralor/will-anyone-have-an-orgy-at-manifes

If it happens, will it involve the Manifest ball pit? /Conflux/will-manifest-have-an-available-bal

Or will there be waterplay? /JosephNoonan/conditional-on-there-being-a-ball-p

Resolves YES if the orgy happens and it involves the ball pit OR waterplay. Resolves NO if it happens but involves neither the ball pit nor waterplay.

Resolves N/A if it doesn't happen at all, so discount your bets freely and reap those delicious loans on this silly market.

(I'm sorry)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predicted YES

How do we know that there won't be a second orgy that does involve a ball pit or waterplay?

https://xkcd.com/150/

Please tag markets like this in the "Spicyfest" category instead of "Manifest" — I want the Manifest category to focus on official conference events and be G-rated. (If this becomes a problem, I may unlist or delete this market in the future...)

predicted YES

Betting YES for non-epistemic reasons. Specifically, the fact that it's funny and I think it will probably resolve N/A anyway.

predicted YES

this is now unlisted, so don't worry about your league score here

predicted NO

@Stralor I am pleased to hear nobody will be having an orgy in the ball pit specifically to boost their league prospects.

@JosephNoonan @Conflux why does the ball pit have a lower chance of happening than an orgy?? 🧐

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