Conditional on there being a ball pit at Manifest, will someone pee in it?
Basic
36
Ṁ7207
resolved Sep 25
Resolved
NO

If there are rumors but no definite confirmation, I'll resolve to a probability based on how credible the rumors are.

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predicted NO

id be totally ok with someone peeing in my ball pit if they pay me $400 and inherit ownership of the ball pit

predicted NO

@kipply I assume no one took you up on this offer, right?

predicted NO

nope im home with my pit

manifold would have to charge an additional pigouvian tax tho.
the cost to the conference is probably significantly higher than $400

once this market goes below 5 all hell will break loose

Ban this market it's incentivizing a gross crime

Please tag markets like this in the "Spicyfest" category instead of "Manifest" — I want the Manifest category to focus on official conference events and be G-rated. (If this becomes a problem, I may unlist or delete this market in the future...)

predicted YES

ugh sinclair posted that a ball pit might make an appearance and now my joke bet is killllling me slowly

predicted YES

@Stralor someone bring a dog. I refuse to pee in the ball pit for internet points

surely this breaks some law

predicted YES

@8 and yet

@Stralor i like boll pots!

predicted YES

listen this market is hurting my already terrible paper profits

Why did you make this market, that provides an incentive for someone to do it. And then bought no, so they could buy cheaper yes. Do you want it to happen?

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr It was a joke referencing an infamous event (same as the original ball pit market itself). I bought no because I don't think anyone will pee in the ball pit.

If it was determined there was pee on a ball in the ball pit, how will it be determined that it was from someone peeing as opposed to it being transfered by touch from it being dribbled onto pants and then onto ball in ball pit.

@higherLEVELING If the evidence is inconclusive, I will resolve to a probability based on how strong I think the evidence is.

@JosephNoonan what are some possible types of evidence that you would determine as strong

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING Corroborating reports or reports from trustworthy sources

Don't do it @Stralor

@JosephNoonan watch me

predicted YES

@Stralor I am assuming this N/As if there's no ballpit, as per tradition in "Conditional" markets. please advise me if I'm being too reckless, otherwise I will have to go to Manifest and drag Ronald McDonald with me

predicted NO

@Stralor Yes, it resolves N/A if there's no ball pit.

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