Conditional on there being a ball pit at Manifest, will someone pee in it?
29
closes Sep 26
8%
chance

If there are rumors but no definite confirmation, I'll resolve to a probability based on how credible the rumors are.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:
8 avatar
Trong

once this market goes below 5 all hell will break loose

StrayClimb avatar
Calvinball

Ban this market it's incentivizing a gross crime

SG avatar
S G

Please tag markets like this in the "Spicyfest" category instead of "Manifest" — I want the Manifest category to focus on official conference events and be G-rated. (If this becomes a problem, I may unlist or delete this market in the future...)

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts YES

ugh sinclair posted that a ball pit might make an appearance and now my joke bet is killllling me slowly

1 reply
Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts YES

@Stralor someone bring a dog. I refuse to pee in the ball pit for internet points

8 avatar
Trong

surely this breaks some law

2 replies
Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts YES

@8 and yet

8 avatar
Trong

@Stralor i like boll pots!

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts YES

listen this market is hurting my already terrible paper profits

ShadowyZephyr avatar

Why did you make this market, that provides an incentive for someone to do it. And then bought no, so they could buy cheaper yes. Do you want it to happen?

1 reply
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

@ShadowyZephyr It was a joke referencing an infamous event (same as the original ball pit market itself). I bought no because I don't think anyone will pee in the ball pit.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

If it was determined there was pee on a ball in the ball pit, how will it be determined that it was from someone peeing as opposed to it being transfered by touch from it being dribbled onto pants and then onto ball in ball pit.

3 replies
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'bought Ṁ10 of NO

@higherLEVELING If the evidence is inconclusive, I will resolve to a probability based on how strong I think the evidence is.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

@JosephNoonan what are some possible types of evidence that you would determine as strong

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

@higherLEVELING Corroborating reports or reports from trustworthy sources

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

Don't do it @Stralor

3 replies
Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴bought Ṁ20 of YES

@JosephNoonan watch me

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts YES

@Stralor I am assuming this N/As if there's no ballpit, as per tradition in "Conditional" markets. please advise me if I'm being too reckless, otherwise I will have to go to Manifest and drag Ronald McDonald with me

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'predicts NO

@Stralor Yes, it resolves N/A if there's no ball pit.

blackle avatar
Blackle Moribought Ṁ0 of NO

Normal website

blackle avatar
Blackle Mori

concerned about perverse incentives here

4 replies
JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@blackle We have to bet this market high so that people will be encouraged not to pee in it

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴bought Ṁ10 of YES

@JosephNoonan on it 📈

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Stralor what you don't know is that I'm gonna be the one

evergreenemily avatar
evergreen

@blackle I was gonna make a market like this, but decided I really didn't want to be known as "that girl whose market encouraged someone to pee in the Manifest ball pit for profit." I like living dangerously, but not THAT dangerously.