I started in the Platinum League, will I reach Diamond at any point this year?
I started in the Platinum League, will I reach Diamond at any point this year?
8
220Ṁ1290resolved Jul 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
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predictedYES 1y
oof hit (relatively) hard by the 100 million mana market. it's a tighter race this season!
this is pretty certain to happen this season bc I caught a windfall in Will i create an alpha version of my game before summer solstice?NO , which is now realized profits. and that's even considering some expected losses like in When this market closes, will I still have a limit order on it?NO . but who knows what the stoppage time will churn up this season and I might over-leverage my newfound cash
predictedYES 1y
wtf am I doing in 1st against people with 5-10x the portfolio size??
obviously this brief vision of the summit is too early to call, but it's a promising season!
predictedYES
@Stralor I have made M3K so far with about the same portfolio size as you, I guess we're just good at Manifolding :)
predictedNO 1y
Update! I'm still in platinum after season 1, so I'm neither closer nor further from this happening, other than that there's less time.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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