G20 country: a sovereign nation that's a full independent member of the G20 at market creation (simply being in the EU/ AU doesn't count) merge: 2 or more valid countries decide to become one nation (in this case this WOULD count if the EU all merged, since that would include multiple full G20 members) before end of 2040 The inverse: @/Stralor/g20-country-divides

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (2 traders, as of Aug 16, 2026).

G20 countries merge?

G20 countries merge?

Ṁ1kṀ400

2040

34%

chance

ALL

G20 country: a sovereign nation that's a full independent member of the G20 at market creation (simply being in the EU/ AU doesn't count)
merge: 2 or more valid countries decide to become one nation (in this case this WOULD count if the EU all merged, since that would include multiple full G20 members)
before end of 2040

Market context

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