Resolution criteria

The 2026 G20 Leaders' Summit will be held December 14-15, 2026, at Trump National Doral Miami. This market resolves YES if a South African cabinet minister. Resolution will be determined by official G20 attendance records and credible news reporting of the summit.

Background

South Africa is one of 19 G20 member countries, making attendance at the annual summit a standard expectation for member states. South Africa currently holds the G20 presidency through November 2025 and recently hosted the 2025 summit in Johannesburg. The Trump administration expects the guest list for the 2026 summit to be smaller than recent G20 summits, which could affect overall attendance patterns.

Considerations

Diplomatic tensions between the US and South Africa may influence attendance decisions. Trump boycotted the 2025 South Africa summit, citing claims of white genocide against Afrikaners, and Trump stated he could not attend the 2025 G20 summit due to differences with South Africa over its land and Israel-related policies. These tensions could create reciprocal diplomatic complications for South Africa's participation in the 2026 US-hosted summit. Additionally, six leaders were absent from the 2025 G20 summit, demonstrating that even member countries sometimes skip the annual gathering.