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MANIFOLD
G20 country divides?
2
Ṁ1kṀ300
2040
37%
chance
  • G20 country: a sovereign nation that's a full independent member of the G20 at market creation (simply being in the EU/ AU doesn't count)

  • divides: splits into 2 or more nations, de jure or de facto (e.g. secession counts, as does civil war where the two sides are represented by full governments and are acknowledged internationally)

  • before end of 2040

The inverse: /Stralor/g20-countries-merge

Market context
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