NFL Coaches Challenge Survival Market
Andy Reid - Kansas City
Sean McVay - Los Angeles (Rams)
Doug Pederson - Jacksonville
Mike McCarthy - Dallas
Shane Steichan - Indianapolis
Jonathan Gannon - Arizona
M̶a̶t̶t̶ L̶a̶F̶l̶e̶u̶r̶ -̶ G̶r̶e̶e̶n̶ B̶a̶y̶
Z̶a̶c̶ T̶a̶y̶l̶o̶r̶ -̶ C̶i̶n̶c̶i̶n̶n̶a̶t̶i̶
K̶e̶v̶i̶n̶ S̶t̶e̶f̶a̶n̶s̶k̶i̶ -̶ C̶l̶e̶v̶e̶l̶a̶n̶d̶
B̶i̶l̶l̶ B̶e̶l̶i̶c̶h̶i̶c̶k̶ -̶ N̶e̶w̶ E̶n̶g̶l̶a̶n̶d̶
J̶o̶h̶n̶ H̶a̶r̶b̶a̶u̶g̶h̶ -̶ B̶a̶l̶t̶i̶m̶o̶r̶e̶
M̶i̶k̶e̶ V̶r̶a̶b̶e̶l̶ -̶ T̶e̶n̶n̶e̶s̶s̶e̶e


Current status (going into the 2024/25 season)



(No additional notes are added after a coach is eliminated, they could be still challenging plays)

The rules of this market are as follows (derived from a fun bet a friend and I had):

1.) If a coach losses a challenge they are eliminated, unless they have a shield. If they have a shield, they lose (one of) their shield(s) instead.

2.) If an alive coach has a successful challenge, they gain a shield (that will protect them from a future failed challenge. There is no limit on shields.

3.) Challenges occur in the order they occur in the game. A coach without a shield that challenges two calls in a game (one upheld, one reversed) would survive if the reversed challenge was first (gained a shield then lost it), but be eliminated if the upheld challenge was first (they are eliminated and can't gain shields).

4.) If a coach is fired or leaves their head coaching position from a team permanently they are eliminated (no matter the amount of shields).

5.) An eliminated coach cannot "resurrect", no matter how many challenges they win (thus, all already eliminated since the start of the season as of posting this Week 8 are removed as potential answers here)

6.) Although we got off to a fast start in eliminations this season, they have slowed down, but THIS MARKET WILL NOT NECESSARILY RESOLVE AT THE END OF THE 2024-2025 REGULAR SEASON (it already passed through the 23/24 season without a winner) and there will only be ONE WINNER. Thus the PLAYOFFS WILL COUNT, and the market could potentially carry over to the 2025 regular season (with the same coaches eliminated, along with any fired coaches). Ideally if this is a popular/fun market, I will then start a new market after a winner is crowned.

7.) If somehow the last coaches are eliminated at the same week/timeslot, the exact time the challenged was upheld will be used (the later one would win).

I've thoroughly looked for challenges in all the game's play by play, but let me know if there are any errors (or an easier database for challenges than going through each games play by play) for current alive coaches. I will update the above picture weekly (by the Thursday night game).

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possibly one of the most intriguing markets ever known to man

Updated through the playoffs, where the only change was Reid gaining a 5th (!) shield. The market will continue into the 2024/25 season. I might start a new challenge market for the 2024/25 season, although I might want to make better rules so it will actually resolve within 24/25, so let me know if anybody has ideas!

@StopPunting Maybe he will randomly retire.

@Eliza I'm praying for it as a Bills fan

bought Ṁ50 of Jonathan Gannon - Ar... NO

Vrabel's toast.

Yes, with the firing Vrabel is eliminated! I'll update the photos later today (since for some reason my work has blocked google sheets access lol).

In the concluding weeks, the remaining coaches appear to be bulking up for either the playoffs, or next season.

Week 17:

Low activity, except that Pederson gets a shield!

Week 18:

The last week of the year Jonathan Gannon put his life on the line with his first challenge of the year and.... succeeded (and robbed me of the opportunity to make a market for if Gannon will challenge a play next year). Shane Steichan also got a 2nd shield.

No shield losses, and every coach remaining has ended the season with at least one shield!

Reid, McVay, and McCarthy still have the opportunity to loss (or gain!) shields in the playoffs and Vrabel might be on the hot seat, but we know at least Gannon, Steichan, and Pederson will carry this competition into 2024!


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An actual Coach Survival Pool (not just challenges lol):


Coaching Changes For Next Year:


Quarterback Changes For Next Year:


bought Ṁ151 of M̶a̶t̶t̶ L̶a̶F̶l̶e̶u... NO


As @Eliza predicted, coaches are making sacrifices for the playoffs and playoff positions, except not with their shields but with their Challenge Survival Market lives themselves (don't think about how that doesn't actually makes any sense).

3 Venerated (but Shield-less) Coaches were eliminated this week via lost challenges

John Harbaugh

Bill Belichick

Zac Taylor

On the other end, Mike Vrabel picked up a shield for protection. In a season where the Titans miss the playoffs, that's extra games he will probably keep it over to 2024 (as long as he stays with the Titans....)

Will Week 17 get Bloodier? Maybe the coaches want this market resolved in 2023 and not hanging over their head for 2024!

Will Eliminated Coaches get voted down? It's free mana and apparently a ton of liquidity out there to make a ton of value, if I don't get to it first (I don't bet until after posting these updates).

Will Anybody get as Excited about this Market as me? Actually potentially, as I kind of lost caring about challenges in bulk, and this market isn't making me smarter about football in any way.

Will Jonathan Gannon find his Challenge Flag? The Flag is red, and the Cardinals are red, so it probably blended in somewhere! Somebody help him! Or alternatively "You can't miss all the shots you don't take" - Jonathan Gannon

@StopPunting Wait, you're kidding, Bill Belichick is still coaching in 2023?

bought Ṁ500 of J̶o̶h̶n̶ H̶a̶r̶b̶a̶u... NO

@StopPunting The Titans coach could get fired or quit also!

@Eliza Bill is sticking in just to make sure he can secure the all time most losses in NFL history. He might even coach on a different team next year (although he is almost certainly parting from the Patriots).

@Eliza Super true for Vrabel, there's definitely a chance. I think he is recognized as a good coach though, and they have a relatively young QB, so they probably will keep him on. Whether he might want to go somewhere else a good question (and would eliminated him here)

Week 15:

Another Elimination! Matt LaFleur completes his fall from grace, going from Double Shield after Week 8 to eliminated after his 3rd lost challenge in a row.

Andy Reid gains (and keeps this time) a 3rd shield, the first coach to end a week triple shielded. Shane Steichan also gained a shield, while Doug Pederson is now vulnerable after losing his shield.

I created two new (overly described) derivative markets for the long term of this market too if you want to check them out here:



Week 14:

Mike McCarthy gets on the board, gaining his first shield.

Matt LaFleur loses his shield and is now vulnerable just 5 weeks after tying for a double shield lead with Andy Reid.

Reid himself even briefly extended his lead this week with a successful challenge, but unfortunately was too skinny to fit in a XXXL shield, and lost a challenge to go back down to the XXL shield.

All in all, 2 shields lost, 2 shields gained. No progress to an end. People are asking if 2024 will even see a resolution.

Jonathan Gannon has officially won the "Ref Decision Respecter" award, as he is the last coach remaining to not challenge anything.

Week 13:

The now all-powerful seeming sky refs apparently weren't able to make it to the Rams/Browns game.

McVay lost his 2nd shield early in the game, but was able to get it back later. Stefanski however was not as lucky and becomes the first coach eliminated since Week 9.

11 coaches left! Everybody call their local congressmen and tell them to start making coaches challenge more plays!

Week 11 saw:

McVay gain a 2nd shield

Stefanski lose a shield

Week 12 saw:

Harbaugh and Vrabel losing their sole shields

No eliminations either week!

Quick booth reviews (and smarter coaching) seem to have really killed the action.

@StopPunting The main issue I am having with this market, myself, is I have not watched a single NFL football game this year.


@Eliza Haha, I think part of the idea of the fun of this market is to sweat it out when you see a coach challenge a play during the game (even if you have no rooting interest). So definitely not the most fun market if you aren't watching 😂

But there are some interesting factors going into it (i.e. the better the team, the more games the coach has to mess up, changing factors in when coaches challenge, which coaches could potentially get fired, the pure probabilistic estimation from the base rate of challenge wins (which I hope stays under 50%)), that I hope it is still fun for some!

No Eliminations in Week 10

LeFleur and Taylor lose shields
Vrabel gains a shield

bought Ṁ4 of Andy Reid - Kansas City YES

@StopPunting Andy "Genius" Reid holding strong!

Matt LeFleur loses a challenge and a shield!

Zachary Taylor loses a challenge and his shield!

A shorter term market:

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