Sitting at -$5 Million Mana, Tumbles has all but admitted defeat in personally paying back all his creditors, represented by the (as of writing) 86% probability estimated that he will be late paying back a loan. Despite this, there is a thriving secondary market for "Tumbles Debt" (and good faith efforts by Tumbles to do what he can to avoid defaulting on loans), implying that there is some belief that somehow the Manifold community will find a way to maintain the Tumbles Financial Complex as long as it can.

When Tumbles' first defaults, who will end up holding the bag, totaling 1.8 Million mana at the time of market creation? Resolves the largest owed Creditor at 100%, and resolves each other user to the relative percentage of the largest owed (regardless of due date) by Tumbles on the day of his first loan delay (i.e. if the largest creditor owns 100,000 mana of Tumbles' debt, a creditor owning 55,000 mana debt would resolve at 55%, regardless if Tumbles first defaults on a loan on an earlier day).

Resolves the first day of being late on a loan, regardless if the user is later paid their loan in full. Feel free to add Users and/or use this market to hedge your credits!

Related:

• Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a list of users currently being tracked as creditors for this market's resolution. The comment specifies their current debt amounts and the corresponding resolution percentages that would apply if the market were to resolve based on the present debt distribution (with AmmonLam as the largest creditor):

  • AmmonLam: 269,000 (Current 100% resolution candidate)

  • cthor: 183,070 (Current 68% resolution)

  • SanghyeonSeo: 151,500 (Current 56% resolution)

  • Tripping: 100,000 (Current 37% resolution)

  • Quillist: 84,138 (Current 31% resolution)

  • TheWabiSabi: 46,000 (Current 17% resolution)

  • Joshua: 79,000 (Current 29% resolution)

  • GazDownright: 69,696 (Current 26% resolution)

  • StopPunting: 44,000 (Current 16% resolution)

  • HillaryClinton: 10,000 (Current 4% resolution)

This list identifies the current candidates. The final resolution will be determined by the actual debt distribution on the day of Tumbles' first loan delay, as stated in the original market description.