China and Japan engage in direct military conflict before January 1, 2026
2
100Ṁ2110 hours ago
41%
chance
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This market assesses the likelihood of China and Japan engaging in direct military conflict before January 1, 2026. Direct military conflict is defined as armed engagements between the official military forces of both nations, excluding minor skirmishes or accidental incidents. Resolution will be based on credible reports from international news agencies such as Reuters, AP News, and official government statements.
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