By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
49
1kṀ6687
2100
74%
chance

This is meant as an unconditional reference point for @IsaacKing 's series of questions about temperature:

The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

Futurism
Human population crisis
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive?
88% chance
Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
78% chance
Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
74% chance
Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
33% chance
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
60% chance
Conditional on at least 15 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
24% chance
Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
41% chance
Will I be alive by 2100?
34% chance
Will the world population ever surpass 20 billion before 2075?
19% chance
Will there be over 9 billion people by 2037?
45% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy