A recent poll (https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/politics/cnn-poll-israel-hamas-war-americans/index.html) shows that more Americans
have sympathy towards Israelis than towards Palestinians.
Since the poll was taken, however, 70 Palestinian refugees were killed in a rocket attack as they fled southward to escape the war, and Israel is likely to invade Gaza and cause high numbers of civilian casualties. Similar wars of occupation, like the 2003 Iraq War, have had initial extreme levels of support that quickly turn to a majority of opposition once civilian deaths and the inevitable insurgencies begin.
This market will resolve to YES if the average of credible mainstream media polls of Americans over the conflict released during the week of December 18-31, 2023 show that a plurality of Americans have sympathy for or support Israel's actions in the war. It resolves to NO if the average of polls released during that week reveal that Israel has lost support and residents of Gaza have gained a plurality of respondents' sympathy. If the poll(s) are opinion polls asking about the two groups of people separately, then the one with the higher sum of "somewhat favorable" and "very favorable" be selected. It resolves N/A if no polling on the topic is released during the last two weeks of the year.
Polls that ask about whether Americans are sympathetic towards Hamas will be discarded; they must ask whether Americans are sympathetic towards the Palestinean people or the caretaker government Israel installs. In any given poll to be considered, there must be options for the respondant to select Israel, Gaza/Palestine, or (optionally) to abstain from answering the questions.
RESOLUTION: There were not many polls during the last two weeks of 2023. However, a very prominent poll in the New York Times clearly showed a strong plurality of respondents favoring Israel:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html
Therefore, the question resolves to YES.
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42% sympathize more with Israelis, 12% Palestinian, 33% the same
@SteveSokolowski If polling asked these exact questions and got these exact numbers in the timeframe you stated, would this resolve no? These questions seem somewhat different from the ones you describe in the description, but I think they adequately capture the same sentiments (particularly if a majority of people support a ceasefire but the fighting is still ongoing)
@FreshFrier No. These questions are not worded correctly, as they only ask about a "ceasefire."
Still, I think that support is quickly being lost among Americans, which is why I posted it.
Last night, the images coming out of the region were particularly damaging to perceptions of Israel.
It's easy to dispute between parties that random adults killed in collapsed apartment buildings are terrorists or not. It's really difficult to explain away the numerous images of babies being pulled from the rubble. And it's not just one image - there were at least 3 different babies on NBC News last night alone.
Regardless of what happened initially, it's clear at this point that the civilian casualties are overwhelmingly on the Palestinian side.
I know polling shows that younger Americans, under 30, already support Palestine more than Israel. I think Israel will continue to commit these atrocities and eventually Americans will drop some support for Israel.
https://manifold.markets/JV/how-will-american-attitudes-towards-779176d8f80f?r=SlY
