Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. Unlike many of the markets and questions on Manifold, these polls will simply ask "has weak AGI been achieved," rather than providing a definition of the term. The goal is that given that the term is so broad, the only way to characterize AI progress is also to allow respondents to vote based upon their own understanding.
Progress has been steady. The previous polls are referenced here:
/SteveSokolowski/did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp (Answer: 15)
/SteveSokolowski/june-2024-has-weak-agi-been-achieve (Answer: 27)
The previous markets on this topic, which significantly understimated Manifold's belief in AI progress, were:
The polls will not reference any specific model, and will not define "AGI" except to state that the poll does not require that the software system be able to manipulate the physical world. The polls open on the 23rd of each month and close on the 30th.
This market will resolve to YES if the July 2024 poll results in a ratio of YES/(NO + YES) greater than or equal to 0.3. The "no opinion" respondents will be ignored. Otherwise, this question will resolve to NO.
See also:
Wow, this is getting sort of absurd.
Last month this got down to 5%, and just like now, only a 3% gain in the number of respondents was needed to resolve YES. I'll be buying the dip on this market, but I still think it has room to fall.
I made 123M last month and my goal is to make 1000M this month betting against people who continue to underestimate AI progress and people's perception of it.