[October 2024] Has weak superintelligence been achieved?
25
resolved Oct 31
Yes
No
No opinion
On or before October 23, 2024, had weak superintelligence been achieved?
This poll is one of a series of monthly polls tracking public opinion of AI progress. The definition of "superintelligence" is not provided, and which software system(s) achieved it is up to the respondent to define. However, a "weak" system is not required to be able to manipulate the physical world.
MANIFOLD PROGRESS POLLS SERIES:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
72% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
23% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
38% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
36% chance
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]
39% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
78% chance
Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?
72% chance
In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?
Will Manifold users declare that weak AGI has been achieved during or before February 2025?
30% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
82% chance