Will Q-Day happen in 2025 or 2026? When all of our encryption is broken.
12
100Ṁ946
2028
10%
chance
3

Cybersecurity analysts call this Q-Day—the day someone builds a Quantum Computer that can crack the most widely used forms of encryption.

https://archive.is/00jZB

It may have already happened and they kept it a secret. So this market will not close until 1/1/28. Although Q-day must happen a year before that 1/1/27 to resolve as Yes. I think by then everyone will know if the answer is Yes. Without public proof the answer is No.

  • Update 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Q-Day refers to when quantum computers can break the popular most used non-quantum resistant algorithms (not all encryption).

Politics
Technology
AI
Cybersecurity
Quantum Computing
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
18% chance
Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028
15% chance
Will my employer be hit with a major ransomware attack again by the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?
87% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
39% chance
RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032
20% chance
Will the Dorabella Cipher be broken with a published proof by EOY 2034?
48% chance
Will DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?
34% chance
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
15% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ49 NO

For me Q-Day is when a new James Bond movie comes out

All encryption or just non-quantum resistant algorithms?

@WilliamGunn The popular most used non-Q resistant algorithms, obviously.

Decryption always goes along with improved Encryption. So I guess NO.

@DaniellqdC6 It will not improve enough by 2026.

@SteveBright and neither will quantum computing.

People are also trading

🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
18% chance
Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028
15% chance
Will my employer be hit with a major ransomware attack again by the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?
87% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
39% chance
RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032
20% chance
Will the Dorabella Cipher be broken with a published proof by EOY 2034?
48% chance
Will DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?
34% chance
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
15% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy