Will there be a destructive NATURAL Earthquake or Volcano or Solar or Tsunami or Hurricane event with more than a $100 Billion in damages in the USA (No)...
Or a man-made EMP / Nuke / Malware event affecting at least an entire city's infrastructure FIRST? (Yes)
For longer than a few minutes.
None of the above resolves to No at the end of year.
Which one will happen First?
Natural event (No) or
EMP (Yes)?
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a man-made event affects an entire city's infrastructure:
It must be caused by EMP, Nuke, or Malware to resolve the market to YES.
If it is man-made but due to a different cause (i.e., not EMP, Nuke, or Malware), this event will not resolve the market to YES and will also not resolve it to NO. The market would continue until a qualifying Natural event, a qualifying EMP/Nuke/Malware event, or the market's end date.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The qualifying man-made event (EMP, Nuke, or Malware affecting an entire city's infrastructure) must occur in the USA for the market to resolve to YES.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An event such as a city-wide blackout would be considered as infrastructure being affected.
For the market to resolve to YES due to a man-made event, the cause (EMP, Nuke, or Malware) must be verified by a reliable source.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on city size for man-made events resolving to YES (which must affect an entire city's infrastructure):
For EMP or Nuke events: a city of any size qualifies.
For Malware events: the affected city must have a population of 500,000 or more.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An otherwise qualifying man-made event (EMP, Nuke, or Malware) will count towards a YES resolution even if it is caused by US government forces.
1,000People are also trading
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Great question! Any size city for EMP or Nuke. The city must be 500k or more for Malware.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yes, this is less likely since it is within USA. About as likely as 911 happening again?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Great question! Yes, but only if it is Billions in damage. I'd like to change this damage amount to $100 Billion. Since I googled historical hurricanes.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen We have to wait until the cause is determined. If it is not a natural cause, but it did effect the infrastructure, we need to verify if it was man made. It must also be EMP / Nuke / Malware to be Yes. If it is a different cause, then none of the above resolves to No. Until another event happens around the world. Do you have a theory as to the cause in Iberian peninsula?
@SteveBright would a blackout qualify as infrastructure being affected, even though the needed fixes might not be large scale? It took more than hours of time to fix.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen That is infrastructure. None of the leading causes or theories are EMP or Malware. This must be verified by a reliable source before it resolves to Yes.